Did 2025 Topps Flagship Series Have a Quality Control Problem? The PSA Gem Rate Suggests It Did.

Every year, collectors debate whether PSA has become tougher, whether modern cards are overproduced, or whether grading has simply become more difficult. But when you look at the PSA Gem Mint 10 rates across recent Topps flagship releases, one year stands out dramatically from the rest.

That year is 2025 Topps (Series 1 & 2).

Looking at the Numbers

The PSA 10 gem rates for recent Topps flagship releases tell an interesting story:

Source: GemRate.com PSA population report data. Gem rates reflect the percentage of graded cards receiving a PSA 10 grade.

The trend is fairly consistent from 2022 through 2024. Gem rates fluctuate, but they remain within a reasonable range.

Then 2025 arrives and falls off a cliff.

An 18% gem rate is not simply a minor decline. It represents less than half the success rate of 2024 and less than one-third of the success rate collectors experienced in 2022 and 2023.

Even more telling, 2026 immediately rebounds to approximately 45%, nearly identical to 2024.

That rebound may be the strongest evidence that 2025 was an outlier.

Was PSA Simply Grading Harder?

Many collectors initially may assume PSA has become more strict.

At first glance, that seems like a logical explanation. If graders suddenly tightened standards, fewer cards would receive PSA 10 grades.

The problem with that theory is 2026.

If PSA had fundamentally changed its grading standards, we would expect the lower gem rates to continue into future releases. Instead, 2026 returned to a gem rate almost identical to 2024.

That suggests the grading standards themselves were not the primary issue.

Instead, the cards being submitted appear to have been the problem.

Why 2025 May Have Been Different

One possible explanation is production volume.

The hobby has seen significantly larger print runs in recent years. As production scales up, maintaining consistent quality control becomes increasingly difficult.

Collectors have repeatedly voiced concerns about quality control across various Topps products, including centering issues, surface damage, and printing defects.

If 2025 Topps flagship experienced even a modest increase in manufacturing defects compared to surrounding years, the impact on PSA gem rates would be substantial.

Remember, a card does not need a major flaw to miss a PSA 10. A slightly soft corner, a subtle print line, or minor centering issue is often enough to turn a potential 10 into a 9.

The Rebound in 2026 Matters

The strongest evidence against the "PSA got tougher" argument is what happened next.

2026 Topps returned to a 45% gem rate, nearly matching 2024 levels.

If PSA grading standards were truly responsible for the 2025 collapse, the 2026 numbers should have remained near 18%.

They didn't.

Instead, they bounced back almost immediately.

What This Means for Collectors

The low PSA 10 rate may ultimately make high-grade 2025 Topps flagship cards more desirable than many initially expected.

Modern flagship products are often known for producing high percentages of Gem Mint grades. When over half the population receives a PSA 10, scarcity becomes difficult to achieve.

2025 appears to be the opposite.

With only about 18% of submissions reaching Gem Mint status, collectors may eventually view PSA 10 examples from the set differently than those from surrounding years.

For collectors and set builders, that creates an interesting dynamic:

• Raw cards may be riskier to grade.
• PSA 10 examples may command stronger premiums.
  

Final Thoughts

Looking at recent Topps flagship releases, one conclusion becomes difficult to ignore.

2025 Topps is the outlier.

The surrounding years produced PSA 10 rates ranging from roughly 45% to 61%. Then 2025 crashed to just 18% before rebounding back to 45% in 2026.

While no official explanation has been provided by Topps or PSA, the evidence strongly suggests that 2025 suffered from quality control issues that were not present to the same degree in surrounding releases.

The numbers do not look like a grading standard change.

They look like a manufacturing problem.

And for collectors chasing Gem Mint examples, that distinction matters.